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Kostas Bintas, the head of metals at global commodity trader Mercuria Energy Group, has issued a stark warning from Shanghai: a surge in copper shipments to the U.S., driven by traders chasing high premiums, risks draining inventories from the rest of the world. He asserts that prices will continue their climb, signaling the arrival of a major bull market.
“This is the big one,” Bintas said in an interview following a key industry conference. “If the world keeps going like this we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world.” While declining to give a specific price target, he indicated that London Metal Exchange (LME) copper, already trading near record highs, has only one direction to go. “Just looking at the facts, mathematically… There’s only one answer: there will be tightness and a higher price.”
The market dislocation is primarily fueled by arbitrage trading sparked by uncertainty over future U.S. tariff policy. Although President Donald Trump extended an exemption for refined copper until the second half of 2026 in July, the lingering threat has prompted traders to rush metal to the U.S. to lock in the high premium on New York’s Comex exchange.
Mercuria anticipates that after a brief slowdown, U.S. copper imports will ramp up again in the coming months, with first-quarter 2026 volumes potentially matching the record pace of Q2 2025—which exceeded 500,000 tonnes. This persistent flow threatens to create shortages in markets like China, even against a backdrop of weakening global demand.
“The role of marginal buyer has now shifted to the U.S.,” said Nick Snowdon, Mercuria’s head of metals and mining research. The scramble for Comex-deliverable copper has dramatically driven up premiums. Traders have reportedly sought Chilean copper for next year at premiums of more than $500 per tonne over LME prices. Chile’s Codelco recently shocked Asian customers by offering benchmark premiums above $300 per tonne for supplies to South Korea and China.
Bintas believes Chinese buyers, despite hesitating at current high prices, will ultimately have to accept them. “What perhaps looks like a high number today might be a low number in a few weeks,” he said. He emphasized that prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) will eventually have to react to U.S. market dynamics. “If we run to $12,000 or $15,000… the SHFE will take time to catch up. You’re going to see a lot of Chinese copper cathodes coming out. And then when [buyers] come back from Chinese New Year, there will not be enough.”
Bintas’s bullish call echoes recent warnings from executives at rival traders like IXM and Gunvor Group, who have cited mine disruptions and potential supply shortfalls. However, Bintas acknowledges that his outlook is largely driven by U.S. policy. This year’s copper market volatility starkly illustrates how Trump’s economic agenda is overwhelming the traditional supply-demand forces that have focused on China’s industrial economy for two decades.
As producers, manufacturers, and traders finalize supply deals for next year, a market consensus is rapidly forming: the ongoing diversion of copper to the U.S. could ignite a global supply crisis, propelling prices to unprecedented levels.
