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Amid surging global demand and a persistent supply shortage, silver prices have hit consecutive record highs this week, approaching USD 90 per ounce. China’s Ministry of Commerce recently announced the further tightening of silver export controls effective January 1, 2026. This move aims to secure the supply chain for domestic critical industries and is interpreted by the market as a key catalyst likely to push global silver prices to even higher levels in 2026.
Rich Checkan, President and COO of Asset Strategies International, pointed out that physical silver supply was already tight before the implementation of the new export controls. “Last year marked the fifth consecutive year of a silver production deficit, with the physical silver shortfall nearing 250 million ounces,” Checkan stated in an email commentary dated January 6.
He explained that the challenges facing silver supply stem from multiple factors: on one hand, growing demand from artificial intelligence data centers, solar panels, electric vehicles, and other cleantech applications; on the other hand, the roughly ten-year timeline from discovery to production for new mines makes it difficult for supply to keep pace with rising demand.
Checkan added, “Coupled with the fact that China’s export restrictions (such as the 80-ton minimum production threshold, increased capital requirements, etc.) will take a significant number of Chinese silver producers out of the potential export market, this constitutes an immediate and significant supply pressure.” According to the latest policy, only 44 Chinese companies are currently authorized to export silver to the global market.
Antonio Di Giacomo, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, recently noted that economies dependent on refined silver imports, especially in North America and Europe, will face risks of higher costs, logistical delays, and the need to diversify suppliers. These tensions could gradually translate into higher end-product prices across the technology, energy, and manufacturing sectors.
China’s export controls are seen as part of a broader global trend where governments are tightening control over natural resources deemed critical to industry and national security. Di Giacomo explained, “From a strategic perspective, this move aims to ensure domestic silver supply for sectors considered priorities within China’s growth model. The energy transition, expansion of the solar industry, development of electric vehicles, and advances in high-precision electronics have steadily increased domestic demand for the metal.”
By incorporating silver into a strict state-controlled licensed exporter management system, the Chinese government has effectively placed it on a strategic par with rare earths. Controlling the supply of such commodities not only serves its national economic goals but also helps influence global markets. Similarly, the US elevated silver to strategic metal status by adding it to its Geological Survey’s critical minerals list last November, recognizing its important role in building advanced energy and defense technologies.
China is the world’s second-largest silver producer, with output reaching 3,300 metric tons in 2024, and holds the world’s third-largest silver reserves at 70,000 metric tons. Although its production lags behind Mexico’s, China accounts for approximately 70% of the globally traded refined silver market, with silver exports reaching a substantial USD 3.8 billion in 2024.
Commodity analyst Anton Kharitonov believes that, provided China strictly enforces these export rules, silver prices have the potential to rise by as much as 30% over the next 12 months. Di Giacomo also stated, “Looking ahead to the coming quarters, the silver market may operate in an environment of greater structural tightness. If industrial demand maintains its growth pace and restrictions remain in place, any additional disruption to global supply could amplify price movements.”
With China formally incorporating silver into a stricter export control framework, its strategic metal status has been unprecedentedly solidified. Against the backdrop of persistently tight global supply-demand fundamentals, this policy shift is becoming a key force driving silver prices upward in 2026, likely propelling prices into triple-digit territory sooner than the market previously expected.
