Although Tesla (TSLA) recently confirmed that its robotaxi, Cybercab, will go into production in June, the company is facing severe challenges in the robotaxi sector. The latest data shows its driverless fleet in Austin, Texas, has been involved in another 5 collisions, bringing the total number of accidents to 14 since operations began in June last year. While most were minor scrapes at low speeds, one incident resulted in a person being sent to the hospital for treatment.
Looking at the accident frequency, Tesla’s driverless fleet experiences a collision approximately every 57,000 kilometers driven. Comparing this with the company’s own data, the average American driver encounters an accident every 368,000 kilometers; according to statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the interval for police-reported accidents is 805,000 kilometers. This implies that Tesla’s robotaxi accident rate is 4 to 8 times that of human drivers. It is worth noting that safety drivers were present in the front seats during all these incidents.
In the California market, Tesla is facing a dual dilemma of regulation and marketing. Documents submitted by the company to the California Public Utilities Commission reveal that its vehicles not only have safety drivers but also rely on remote operators for assistance. This explains why during a major power outage in San Francisco, Tesla’s small fleet could operate normally while Waymo’s fleet encountered difficulties—it wasn’t due to technological superiority, but rather the result of human intervention. In fact, while Alphabet’s Waymo also has remote assistance, its large fleet size left operators overwhelmed.
Investor expectations for Tesla’s autonomous driving and robotics business are becoming a key factor supporting its stock price. With its core electric vehicle business under pressure, Tesla’s forward price-to-earnings ratio based on 2026 earnings forecasts remains as high as 199 times. Although mass production of the lower-cost Cybercab is imminent, a safe and reliable autonomous driving system has yet to be proven.
Notably, contrary to market rumors, Tesla has not scaled back its electric vehicle business. The company recently committed to a $20 billion capital expenditure plan for building several production lines. These investments are consistent with its long-term strategy, standing in stark contrast to traditional automakers. Ford’s autonomous driving service promised in 2019 was shelved by 2022, and General Motors completely abandoned robotaxi development by the end of 2024.
While traditional automakers adjust their electrification strategies due to poor sales, Tesla persists with its vision. Currently, Tesla still holds a 46% share of the U.S. electric vehicle market, while General Motors’ 13% market share is likely to shrink following its strategic shift. With the introduction of affordable versions of the Model Y/3 and the discontinuation of the high-end Model S/X lines, Tesla is shifting its focus towards building its Cybercab business.
