In recent days, the trade dispute between Canada and the United States has escalated. U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened Canada with tariffs and went as far as announcing extra duties on energy, uranium, and other critical minerals. He also said that if Canada wished to avoid tariffs, it could consider becoming America’s “51st state.”
Last week, Canada’s prime minister told several business executives that Trump’s notion of “annexing Canada” was no joke, observing that it was tightly linked to these critical mineral resources.
Experts note that these minerals see widespread use in electric vehicle batteries, medical equipment, smartphones, solar cells, semiconductors, defense, and renewable energy technologies. Sometimes called the “bedrock of modern tech,” critical minerals are indispensable to modern economies, so these resources are of vital importance to Canada’s national security as well.
Canada’s Natural Resources Department operates the Critical Minerals Centre of Excellence, which explains that whether a mineral is deemed “critical” depends on whether its supply chain is at risk and whether there is a “realistic opportunity” to produce it in Canada. In addition, it must fulfill at least one of the following: it must be crucial to the country’s national or economic security; it must be required for transitioning to a low-carbon, digital economy; or it must solidify Canada’s position as a sustainable strategic partner in the global supply chain.
Below is the list of 34 minerals officially recognized as Canada’s critical minerals (latest update in 2024):
| Aluminum | Antimony | Bismuth | Cesium |
| Chromium | Cobalt | Copper | Fluorspar |
| Gallium | Germanium | Graphite | Helium |
| High-purity iron ore | Indium | Lithium | Magnesium |
| Manganese | Molybdenum | Nickel | Niobium |
| Phosphorus | Platinum group metals | Potash | Rare earth elements |
| Scandium | Silicon metal | Tantalum | Tellurium |
| Tin | Titanium | Tungsten | Uranium |
| Vanadium | Zinc |
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global market value of critical minerals needed for the energy transition is around US$325 billion. Demand for these minerals will continue to rise as more clean technologies come online. If nations fulfill their climate and energy commitments, annual demand for critical minerals for clean energy could more than double by 2030 and reach nearly 35 million tonnes by 2040—triple the current level.
A report published by TD Economics in June also highlighted the substantial reserves of critical minerals in Canada. That study found that with just six minerals deemed strategic priorities by the federal and provincial governments, the minimum total potential value sits at $300 billion, which would add more than $500 billion to GDP over the lifetime of the mines.
Natural Resources Canada has stated that six of these 34 minerals—lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements—show the most potential to “spur Canadian economic growth.” Here are some of the critical mineral mines, smelters, refineries, and development projects in Canada’s provinces and territories:
•Alberta: lithium, nickel, cobalt, titanium
•British Columbia: molybdenum, niobium, aluminum, copper, zinc, bismuth, indium, germanium
• Manitoba: nickel, copper, cobalt
• New Brunswick: tungsten, molybdenum
• Newfoundland and Labrador: rare earth elements, nickel, cobalt, antimony, fluorspar
• Northwest Territories: rare earth elements, cobalt, bismuth, copper
• Nova Scotia: tin, copper, zinc
• Nunavut: copper, nickel, cobalt, platinum group metals
• Ontario: chromium, graphite, nickel, cobalt, platinum group metals
• Quebec: lithium, magnesium, rare earth elements, graphite, nickel, cobalt, platinum group metals, vanadium, molybdenum, niobium, scandium, aluminum
• Saskatchewan: uranium, potash, helium
• Yukon: zinc, copper, tungsten
Tim Pickering, founder of Auspice Capital Advisors, believes that Canada and the United States remain highly interdependent when it comes to critical mineral supply chains. The U.S. wants domestic or allied sources for military and industrial needs instead of importing them from countries like Russia and China. At this point, the United States already enjoys “ample and convenient access” to Canadian resources, making for a stable and cost-competitive supply chain, but the tariff threats have introduced uncertainty.
In the near term, the flaring “tariff war” may disrupt this established supply network and curb investment in early-stage extraction and processing across both countries. Should tensions escalate further, Canadian suppliers may be driven to markets beyond North America, raising costs “across almost all industries.” Trump’s previous step back from harsher raw-material tariffs indicated that the U.S. recognizes its reliance on Canadian resources.
Ultimately, securing North American economic and security interests might be more achievable through enhanced cooperation—balancing competition and supply chain stability—than by waging a tariff battle.
